NFL Thanksgiving Odds, Watch, Stream: Expert Picks, Best Bets, Teasers, Survival Tips & More

How about some soccer for your Thanksgiving dinner? The NFL has a triple-header on deck for the holidays on Thursday, offering a slew of playoff hopes and Super Bowl threats. In fact, the 0.650 win ratio between these teams is the second highest since the league expanded to three games on Thanksgiving. Five of the six teams playing Thanksgiving also possess a winning record that reaches a league high.

As we do each week for the entire list, we’ve collected the best Thanksgiving picks and gambling content from and SportsLine and put them in one place for you to get tips against the spread from our CBS Sports experts, as well as additional content for each game, including Games from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine projection model, best bets from our staff, survival tips and more.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

What tips can you make with confidence in week 12? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine because their incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is almost up to date $7,000 for $100 players with top NFL picks since inception.

Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -10
Currently: Bills -9.5

Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

“This has what it takes to be a game with a lot of offense. Both teams can score, but the Bills can really score. You’re going to field a big number here as Josh Allen wins a second straight game in Detroit after beating the Browns last week in the same building. The track is fast and the Bills can fly. The Lions will not compete. — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports senior NFL analysthas the bills covering the 9.5 point spread and this game goes well beyond the 54.5 total.

“The Lions have been turning for the past few weeks but I’m having a hard time betting against Josh Allen with that double-digit line. Yes, Detroit’s defense has played better in the last three games, but that was against the Packers, Bears and Giants. Buffalo’s offense is a whole different beast. Allen has played well on Thanksgiving in the past, as the Bills are 2-0 SU in both games and the QB registered a 100-plus passer rating in every contest. However, I believe that Buffalo’s offense can come into play the 30s in the hall at Ford Field, I don’t see that with the Lions in this setting, especially because of the defense in front of Jared Goff I have my doubts, Detroit ranks 24th pass blocking- team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the third-best pass rush team in the league under the same rating system.” — CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan why he takes the Bills -9.5 as one of his best bets for week 12.

“Allen has actually only crossed that line once in the last four games but I think he’s scoring against a poor defense here. The star quarterback is averaging a career-high 293 passing yards per game this season.” — CBS Sports NFL betting guru Jordan Dajani Why Josh Allen enjoys going over his 281.5-yard assist at -127.

“On paper, this feels like a game the Lions have no chance of winning, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned in my life about picking NFL games, it’s that teams always seem to win when you thinks they have no chance of winning, especially when coached by a guy whose most famous quote is biting off kneecaps. I have no idea what Dan Campbell eats at his house on Thanksgiving, but there’s a 50 percent chance it’s kneecaps.

“The big problem in this game for the Lions is that they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this year and they’re going to play a Bills offense that was one of the best. The Lions have the most yards ceded per game and most points per game, and that’s definitely not a good combination when the team you’re playing against is second in both points gained and yards per game .

“If that game had been played four weeks ago I probably would have picked the Bills when I was 30, but the Lions are suddenly one of the hottest teams in football. When you combine that with the fact that the Bills were in an easy offensive rut, that’s the recipe for a game that could go all the way. I told you we were going to talk recipes. — CBS Sports NFL Writer and Pick Six Podcast Co-Host John Breech why he picks the Bills to narrowly beat the Lions 30-27.

Time: Thursday 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (free try)
Open: Cowboys -7
Currently: Cowboys -9

Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

“This has the makings of a Cowboys defeat in much the same vein as Dallas’ 40-3 win over Minnesota just days ago. New York showed some cracks in its foundation in the loss to Detroit, losing several key contributors including forward cornerback Adoree’ Jackson. That should allow the Cowboys offense to keep buzzing, but it’s their defense that could really turn the game off. The Giants are allowing the second highest pressure rate (45%) in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys are putting the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 times to earn the win, the third most of any game this season. With the Giants battered the way they are and Dallas playing at the championship level, they’re going to win by double digits.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan why he’s taking Dallas to cover New York as one of his five locks of the week.

The SportsLine projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, goes into week 12 of the 2022 NFL season with an incredible 155-109 run on top-flight NFL picks from the 2017 season. Now the model is eyeing a six-legged Thanksgiving parlay that would pay out almost 50-1. One of these stages is the total score over 45 in the Cowboys Giants game. For the rest you have to go to SportsLine.

“When those two teams met in Week 3 the Cowboys won 23-16 and that was with Cooper Rush. That game, the Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones five times and picked him up once, and I think we’ll see more of the same thing on Thursday. The Cowboys have won 10 of the last 11 games in this series and I don’t see that dominance ending this week.

“This is the first time these two teams have played on Thanksgiving since 1992. Thirty years ago, the Cowboys destroyed the Giants 30-3 and two months later won the Super Bowl. I’m not saying that’s going to happen this year, but I’m not saying that.” — CBS Sports’ John Breech why he likes the Cowboys beating the Giants, 31-17.

“The Giants put on a terrible showing at home against the Lions, which means maybe they were looking forward to this one. The Cowboys did everything right with their overwhelming victory over the Vikings. The defense has dominated and they will dominate here too. The Giants are too limited offensively.” — CBS Sports senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco says the Cowboys’ defense will lead them to victory again.

Broncos at Titans

Time: Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), Stream on fuboTV (Free Trial)
Open: Vikings -3.5
Currently: Vikings -3

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots

The SportsLine projection model has simulated the NFL Thanksgiving Day games 10,000 times and examined dozens of player props from Caesars Sportsbook. We can tell you that the model says Vikings WR Jefferson goes for 88.5 yards (-117), with the model predicting he’ll finish with a 99 on average. However, the model also says another star flies over his total mileage and offers a prop with a plus money payout. To see what they are, visit SportsLine.

“Now that’s the most intriguing Thanksgiving game to me. The last time the Patriots played on Thanksgiving, they beat the New York Jets 49-19 in the Butt Fumble match. Speaking of beating the Jets, that’s what the Patriots did last week on an 84-yard punt return touchdown with just five seconds left in the fourth quarter. They looked like the better team all afternoon, but it took them an incredibly long time to prove it. I thought Mac Jones was fine. He completed 23 of 27 passes for 246 yards, the highest completion rate Jones has had this season (85.2%). Wind played a role in this duel, but the defense was excellent. They sacked Zach Wilson four times and allowed just 103 yards. In the ranking of teams competing for wildcard spots in the AFC, I actually have the Patriots at No. 2. They could have a run in the second half — just like the last one Year.

“As for the Vikings, yes, that 3:40 loss to the Cowboys will take some time to get over. Still, they can take a page from the Cowboys’ book and force everyone to forget them with a dominant win. Even with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, I can’t help but be impressed by New England’s defense. That unit has allowed just 7.7 points per game in the last three contests and allows for a 19 percent conversion rate on third downs during the same span. The Patriots own the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season, while the Vikings allow the fifth-highest pressure rate. I’ll say that of the three Thanksgiving contests, I’m the least confident when it comes to choosing a side. I’m taking the Patriots to surprise here and I like the over.” — CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani smells excitement in Minnesota as the Patriots SU defeated the Vikings in the Thanksgiving final while also making the over.

RJ White, fantasy and gambling editor at CBS Sports, is consistently SportsLine’s #1 NFL expert. Aside from owning a 445-378-24 for his ATS picks from 2017-2021, he was particularly perceptive when it came to the Vikings. In his last 84 picks involving Minnesota, White is down 52-28-4 (+$2,053), so you’ll surely want to know where he stands on Thursday night. To see this selection, go to SportsLine.

“The Vikings were embarrassed at home on Sunday when they were knocked out by the Cowboys. They’ll fight back and they’ll play better here. New England’s offense is struggling but their defense is playing well. Still, I think the Vikings are going to be strong in the Will react offensively in this one to win it. The Patriots offense is bad. — CBS Sports senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco why he’s taking the Vikings to beat New England by 10 points in the Thanksgiving final.


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