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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page
Market report for Wednesday 23 November
*Indicates the team is in the second leg of a tackle
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 16-25 | Units: -9.40 | Yield: -24.03%
Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 235) at Indiana Pacers
Minnesota is navigating a softer portion of its schedule, and the team has benefited from that. The Timberwolves have won four in a row and are showing signs of improvement. They’ve held their last three opponents to 102.6 points per 100 possessions and Anthony Edwards has started to find his place on that offense with 27.3 points per game in his last three games. Offensively, the Timberwolves have the sixth most shots fired within four feet of the basket and are third in rim shooting this season (69.3%). Indiana defensively allows the sixth highest rate of shots on the rim. The Pacers also generate much of their offense through transition offense. They rank ninth in offensive efficiency versus live rebounds (125.1), but they face a Timberwolves team that ranks sixth in transition defense versus live rebounds (108.3). Personally, I tried playing Indiana as I believe they are in a market with their valuation at this point. With that line, short as it is, and the matchups that I believe are working in Minnesota’s favor, I’ll try again.
Playing: Timberwolves (-1.5)
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (-6, 222)
Just as Los Angeles was on form, the injury bug hit the franchise hard again. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are both out tonight through injuries and as a result Golden State is now a consensus -9 favorite on the board. The Warriors have played much better at home than away this season and they go into the competition with a 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS with a net rating of +13.1 in San Francisco. However, this is a Clippers team used to playing without George and Leonard on the floor. Their defense only allows for 107.3 points per 100 possessions when nobody is playing, and their halffield defense ranks in the 97th percentile in these situations with 85.0 points per 100 games. It may not be the death knell the market believes these two aren’t playing tonight. Interestingly, despite the absence of George and Leonard, that total has risen to 223.5 at some stores. Los Angeles’ offense scores just 99.2 points per 100 possessions without these two being on the ground. Add that to the potential of this defense and it would put me under the game.
Play: Under 223.5
Summary of the best bets
Clipper/Warrior UN 223.5
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (-7, 218)
Jayson Tatum is doubtful with a sprained ankle and that’s reason enough to stay away from tonight’s game. Not that the Celtics couldn’t overcome his absence – in possession without Tatum on the floor, the Celtics are +6.3 per 100 possession – but only because the market would react to his absence. It could be argued that Dallas would be worse off with the also-questionable Spencer Dinwiddie not playing tonight, as opposed to Boston without Tatum. When Luka Doncic is down without Dinwiddie, the Mavericks outperform their opponents at 20.5 points per 100 possessions, but Dallas has played fewer than 40 possessions without one of them being down. This is a team that has -2.4 points per 100 possessions when Dinwiddie is on the ground without Doncic. So what will they do tonight with Doncic on the bench? Tatum’s questionable status has brought that line down to -4.5, but keep track of Dinwiddie’s status as well, as that could be the more impactful absence of the two.
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat (-1.5, 211.5)
This is easy to cross off the list of games to bet on preflop. Jimmy Butler is still out, and four other key role players – Bam Adebayo, Dewayne Dedmon, Tyler Herro, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent – are in question. On the other side, Bradley Beal, Monte Morris and Rui Hachimura are also possible. Adebayo played Minnesota on Monday, but the fact that he reappeared in the report does not inspire confidence in the thought that he is playing a second game in a row. The side is up to Heat -2.5 and the total is down to 210.5 consensus, but both are fluid considering how many players were able or unable to play tonight.
*Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-2, 222)
Brooklyn’s defense fell short in a 115-106 loss to the undermanned Philadelphia 76ers last night, but the Nets could get a shot at making amends tonight when they face the Raptors, who have many names on their injury record. Dalano Banton and Scottie Barnes are questionable, and Pascal Siakam, Precious Achiuwa and Otto Porter Jr. are still out with various grievances. However, Brooklyn is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back game and is a prime candidate to rest one of its key role players. Neither side nor total moved more than half a point this morning, so it would be beneficial to wait for the networks to release their own report before acting here. An interesting trend to follow: Toronto have emerged as a strong home ground this season. The Raptors are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS at home with a +7.5 net rating while averaging 2.9 points per game.